Expected Value (EV) is the average outcome of a specific play over the long run.

It allows you to make mathematically profitable decisions regardless of short-term luck.

The additional expected value gained by the probability that your opponent will fold to a bet or raise.

PILLAR ARTICLE

Expected Value in Poker Decisions

Q: How do I calculate EV?

Multiply the probability of winning by the amount won, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost.

Q: Is folding always 0 EV?

Yes, because you cannot win or lose any more chips once you fold.

min read Intermediate Last updated 2026-09-20

PM Game Theory Division

GTO, Nash Equilibrium & Range Analysis Research Team

Quantitative research division specializing in Game Theory Optimal (GTO) strategy, Nash Equilibrium solutions, Independent Chip Model (ICM) tournament math, and advanced range morphology.

Game Theory Optimal (GTO) & Nash Equilibrium Solvers Independent Chip Model (ICM) Equity Analysis Combinatorics & Fold Equity Modeling

Frequently Asked Questions

What is EV?

Why is EV important?

How do I calculate EV?

Is folding always 0 EV?

What is fold equity?

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